Did the Civil War help or hurt the Southern economy in the long run?

In the long run, the South’s economy certainly improved after the Civil War.  However, it is impossible to say whether this was caused by the Civil War itself or by the overall process of modernization.

Before the Civil War, the South’s economy was based almost completely on staple crops.  There was very little industrialization in the South.  The region was not well connected to the national network of railroads.  Of course, some Southerners were quite wealthy because of their cotton plantations, but the region as a whole was rather economically backward.

After the Civil War, this changed, though not until a couple of decades had passed. By now, the South is very much part of the national economy.  There are many factories in that region.  For example, auto manufacturing seems to have moved out of the Rust Belt down to the South where unions are weaker and labor is cheaper.  The South is just as connected as the North to railroads and freeways.  Clearly, the South’s economy is much more diversified and much stronger than it was before the Civil War.

But did the war actually cause this?  Certainly, if slavery had continued to exist, the South’s economy would not have improved.  So, if we are going to say that slavery would have continued if it had not been for the Civil War, then we would have to say that the war helped the region’s economy.  However, I would argue that slavery would have died in the South as the country industrialized and as slavery became less economically useful.  For example, slavery ended in Brazil (the last Western country to have it) within 25 years of the end of the Civil War.  It had been declining for some time and was finally banned in 1888.  If slavery really would have died on its own, then the Civil War was not really responsible for the changes in the South’s economy.

The answer, then, depends on what you think would have happened to slavery.  Clearly, the end of slavery allowed the South’s economy to develop, if slowly.  To the extent that the Civil War caused slavery to end, it was good for the South’s economy in the long run.